File: Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during an election night event at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on November 6, 2024.
CHICAGO - Donald Trump's administration has the potential to weaponize America’s economic clout as a “political tool” to ensure countries adhere to their foreign policy, analysts have warned ahead of the incoming American president’s second term in office.
Trump is laser-focused on America's needs first, so any partners not on the same page are likely to miss out on investment, trade and access to the world's largest economy.
If President Cyril Ramaphosa wants to maintain his country’s status as Africa's biggest trade partner with the superpower, as well as building strong diplomatic ties with Washington, South Africa will have to start playing by America’s rules, experts suggest.
"I think that there's a real begrudgement from the ANC government of just how important America is for them," said Chatham House Africa Programme research fellow Christopher Vandome.
According to the US legislature an estimated “$21 billion of 2-way goods trade" flows between South Africa and the United States, and “approximately 600 American businesses” operate in SA.
Vandome added that the attitude from Trump will be more like you’re “'with us or against us'” and “if you can play by the same rules as us, then that's fine. You can be part of the same economic system, but you can't sometimes play by these rules, but sometimes play by other rules."
Analysts agree that there’s a very real possibility that Trump could use tarriff-free access to the American market to encourage South Africa to back down on their accusations of genocide against Israel for it's actions in Gaza, as well as curtailing the nation's relationships with US rivals China and Russia.
South Africa for the longest time has had a "long leash" to act independently, while keeping strong links to the US explained Vandome, particularly from the likes of Joe Biden and Barack Obama.
Some US lawmakers and diplomats, though, in recent years have been highly critical of South Africa's geopolitical alignment with Russia and China, specifically its refusal to condemn the former's invasion of Ukraine, which is in stark contrast to its case against Israel in the United Nations International Court of Justice (ICJ).
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has enabled eligible African countries to export some of their produce to the US without paying taxes with the agricultural, textile, manufacturing and wine industries benefiting from this in South Africa.
During Trump's previous tenure he said the scheme would not be renewed when it expires in September 2025 and in his 2024 campaign he pledged to introduce a 10% levy on all foreign-made goods in an effort to boost the US economy.
Foreign policy experts acknowledge that South Africa's stance against Israel will not help build any bridges with the US, however, there's an understanding that the country's long-held position is something that's not going to shift.
The University of Pretoria's African Politics and International Relations Professor Christopher Isike said that in Biden South Africa had somebody who had an "affinity" and "special affection" for the country, so was more understanding of the nation’s hardline position against Israel.
"Mr. Trump is not going to have that same disposition because he very much is in support of what Israel is doing in the Middle East," he said.
Isike explained that the "article which South Africa is building its case on also indicts anyone who supports a state to commit that genocide," and “the Americans are beginning to understand that if Israel is found guilty, what's stopping anyone from making the case that America should also be found guilty?"
"So I don't think that Mr. Trump is going to take kindly to that. What I think he's going to do is to try and use AGOA as a political tool to try and force South Africa to back down...and deter South Africa from pushing further with any kind of action that it can take to prosecute that particular case," Isike said.
eNCA contacted South Africa’s foreign ministry, as well as Trump’s transition team for comment.
The growth of the BRICS membership is also going to potentially raise issues of where South Africa’s loyalties lie, said Vandome.
"Given the expansion of the BRICS and you've got Iran in there, you've got China, you've got Russia, you've got these relationships which are important for the ANC," he said.
"This is going to raise real question marks for the new administration in the US, who are the South Africans, who are they really talking to and how trustworthy [are they]," he said.
Isike meanwhile suggested South Africa's position within the BRICS grouping could be used to "contain" the likes of China and Russia.
"South Africa's position on the Israeli matter may be something that can drive him [Trump] to take action against South Africa. The fact that he will also need South Africa to contain China and Russia in the continent may help to mitigate whatever actions he would have taken.”
“So it's going to be a cost-benefit analysis, and knowing Trump, he would go for the more beneficial option in terms of how he engages with South Africa and any country in the continent," Isike added.