Mozambican security forces are seen next to a burning barricade in Maputo on December 24, 2024.
JOHANNESBURG - The problem that needs to be addressed urgently is no longer who won the October elections in Mozambique but what is the best way forward to prevent the escalating civil unrest from developing into a civil war. If this happened, it would be disastrous for the Southern African region.
Calls for restraint and dialogue are seemingly falling on deaf ears. South Africa’s International Relations and Cooperation, Ronald Lamola, has said Pretoria is ready to assist Mozambique in any manner to facilitate this dialogue. Several Mozambican commentators and political leaders have criticised the South African government for taking too long to act in this matter.
This came only after Mozambique’s highest legal entity regarding electoral law, the Constitutional Council, on 23 December validated the 9 October election results by proclaiming the governing Frelimo Party and its presidential candidate Daniel Chapo as winners.
The main opposition presidential candidate Venancio Mondlane has rejected the results and called for the intensification of protests under what he has termed the “TURBO V8” stage of demonstrations.
Frelimo's offices, police stations, banks, shops, warehouses and factories have been looted, vandalised and set ablaze around the country. There have been reports of the theft of guns and ammunition, the glaring lack of effective public order policing and the reports by local media of the rumoured absence of senior government officials from the country. Where police have acted, they have reportedly opened fire indiscriminately with over 250 people now reported killed since October when the post-election protests began in earnest. Maputo was like a ghost town at Christmas with almost all businesses shut and people staying at home.
The intensified post-election violence has created growing concern in urban areas about community safety. Residents in many neighbourhoods have reportedly started organising themselves, as they fear their homes might be the next targets of the looting that has ransacked shops, warehouses and other commercial entities. The risk is high of people taking the law into their own hands. Foreign entities like South Africa’s SASOL oil and gas giant has been forced to shut down its pipeline operations in the gas fields of Temane, in Inhambane province.
Some residents of Matola, the main town you reach before you get to Maputo, along the N4 highway from South Africa, have told me that they are queueing for 2 or more hours to buy bread at local bakeries (padarias). They lament the closure and destruction of many local stores, fearing that soon there will be a huge shortage of basic foodstuffs.
Most of the supplies come from South Africa but with no truck movement allowed across the Lebombo border post, it is anyone’s guess when Maputo, Matola and
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other urban areas will run out of necessities. Fuel is one of them and filling stations in several urban areas including the capital city Maputo, Matola, Xai-Xai and Nampula in the north have started rationing how many litres of diesel and petrol to sell per vehicle. Many others have closed as fuel tankers are stuck at various fuel depots and are prevented from transporting their supplies.
The snaking long queues at bakeries and fuel stations are reminiscent of what Mozambique experienced at the height of the civil war that pitted Frelimo against Renamo in the 1980s.
The sound of gunfire at night in parts of Maputo and surrounding areas has become the norm in the past few weeks, amid unconfirmed reports that the special national criminal investigation unit, SERNIC, has been ordered to use any means to disperse the protesters. SERNIC officers are usually dressed as civilians, with no uniform. A 17-year-old boy was reportedly shot dead on Wednesday night when SERNIC dispersed a crowd of protesters in a Matola neighbourhood.
There have been a few social media videos showing young people brandishing guns stolen from police stations. The authorities have not published any information about how many weapons have been stolen during assaults on police stations, as they do not want to cause any alarm. But it is known that police have lost many firearms and ammunition. The main police station at a town called Manhiça in Maputo province is reported to have been completely ransacked of all its weapons and ammunition.
With stolen guns and ammunition in the wrong hands, neighbourhoods organising to protect themselves, special police shooting to disperse protesters as the death toll rises, commercial activity grinding to a halt, supplies of necessities restricted, and no clear leadership about how to resolve this historic crisis, it is only fair to ask if all of this would not make up the ingredients of a civil war.
The main issue is how to pull Mozambique and its people back from the edge. Frelimo that has ruled Mozambique for almost 50 years must accept that its liberation movement history does not give it a right to govern eternally. It’s been accused of stealing votes since 1999. Last year’s local government elections were an embarrassment with some veteran Frelimo leaders distancing themselves from the outcome. For example, some Frelimo officials spoke openly about how their party in fact lost the Maputo metro to Mondlane, but the electoral commission swindled the numbers.
Regarding the current contested national election results, not a single party, including Mondlane and Frelimo have produced any evidence to back up their claims of victory, according to several local Mozambican media. Even the Constitutional Council did not fully account how it re-adjusted the final numbers that it announced on 23 December. Therefore, the credibility of the results is questionable.
The next 3 weeks will be critical. Mondlane has declared that he will install himself as president on 15 January 2025, the date set for the presidential inauguration. It is not
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clear how he plans to do this because Mondlane is in hiding outside Mozambique, fearing for his life, and what impact this will have as Frelimo’s Daniel Chapo is set to be officially inaugurated on the same day.
Some prominent Mozambicans are calling for an inclusive interim transitional government that would involve prominent civil society leaders, the 4 main political parties (Frelimo, Podemos, Renamo and MDM), and the 4 presidential candidates, including Daniel Chapo and Venancio Mondlane. Such a transitional arrangement could be in place for up to 2 years during which the country would be stabilised, electoral reforms discussed and agreed on, and a new election announced under a more robust and transparent process. This is where I believe South Africa could offer its help as mentioned by Minister Lamola. Pretoria could facilitate the negotiations, chaired by an independent panel consisting of respected African leaders such as Thabo Mbeki, who has a solid track record in mediation on the continent.
Mozambique is on the brink of sliding into a disastrous catastrophe that would impact Southern Africa. Whatever is in store for the country, everyone involved agrees that Mozambique will never be the same again. A new future beckons. Will it be a bright one or a dark one?
By Dan Moyane