JOHANNESBURG - The recent national elections in South Africa have left the African National Congress (ANC) in an unfamiliar and precarious position. For the first time since the end of apartheid, the ANC has failed to secure a majority, falling short of the crucial 50 percent threshold required to govern alone. This historic shift has opened the door to a new and uncertain era in South African politics, where coalitions between adversaries may become the norm rather than the exception.
The ANC’s decline is not sudden. It’s the culmination of years of dwindling support, driven by corruption scandals, internal factionalism and an inability to address the country’s pressing socio-economic challenges.
READ: ANC's fall from grace
While the party still commands significant loyalty, especially in rural areas such as Limpopo, North West and the Eastern Cape, urban voters and the youth have shown increasing disillusionment with the ruling party. The electorate’s message is clear: the status quo has to undergo a radical shift. The Democratic Alliance (DA), Umkhonto WeSizwe Party (MKP), the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and other smaller parties now hold significant bargaining power. The very idea of these parties, particularly the DA, MK Party and EFF, collaborating with the ANC seems improbable given their stark ideological differences and contentious history.
Yet, in politics, necessity often breeds strange bedfellows.
The ANC must now navigate a political landscape where compromise and negotiation are essential. The most straightforward path to a coalition would be with the DA, South Africa’s second-largest party, which represents a more liberal, laissez faire approach. However, ideological gaps between the ANC’s leftist policies and the DA’s center-right platform could prove difficult to bridge. The DA has long criticised the ANC’s governance and tolerance of corruption, which may complicate trust-building and policy alignment.
The possibility of a coalition between the ANC and former President Jacob Zuma’s MK Party would mark an intriguing yet complex development in South African politics, particularly given that the ANC has an on-going disciplinary process against Zuma based on his formation of the party.
The MK Party, steeped in militant rhetoric and radical economic policies, presents a stark contrast to the ANC's more moderate and historically mainstream approach. On the other hand, the EFF, led by Julius Malema, represents a more radical leftist faction, advocating for extensive land reforms and the nationalising of key industries - policies that resonate with a disenfranchised segment of the population but are anathema to both the ANC’s moderate wing and the DA.
A coalition with the EFF might force the ANC to adopt more radical policies, risking further alienation of moderate and business-friendly supporters. Regardless of which coalition path the ANC pursues, the implications for governance are profound.
A coalition government, by its very nature, requires consensus-building and a willingness to prioritise national interests over party ideologies. This could foster a more inclusive and accountable governance model, breaking away from the single-party dominance that has characterised South African politics for decades.
However, the potential for instability is high.
Coalitions are inherently fragile and prone to internal conflicts and power struggles.
South Africa’s coalition experience at the municipal level has shown both the promise and pitfalls of such arrangements, with several local governments experiencing frequent disruptions and policy paralysis. The prospect of a unity government, comprising erstwhile adversaries, might seem a daunting and perhaps even unpalatable solution to many.
Yet, it could also be the crucible for a new political culture in South Africa - one that works for the will of the people, embraces diversity, encourages debate, and necessitates collaboration.
This could reinvigorate the country’s democratic institutions and restore public faith in governance. For the ANC, this is a critical juncture.
The party must decide whether to cling to its past dominance or adapt to the evolving political landscape by embracing coalition politics. For the opposition, this is an opportunity to shape the country’s future directly, moving from the periphery into a central role in governance.
Denga Mavhunga and Nkateko Muloiwa
*This article is the opinion of the authors and does not reflect the views of eNCA.