The main Al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group in Mali struck a forceful blow to the ruling junta when it hit highly sensitive military targets in the capital Bamako, underscoring its two-pronged strategy of territorial expansion and harassment, experts say.
Targeting a military police barracks and a military airport, the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) group demonstrated its firepower on Tuesday in a city usually spared major attacks.
It also made an impression at a time when the focus has been on northern Mali. Up there, the army and its Russian allies from the Wagner mercenary group and a new umbrella security body known as Africa Corps are trying to regain the upper hand in some areas.
"It's a double message: 'We're here, we strike where we want, including strategic sites'," said one North African researcher, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The attack was a severe blow to the junta -- in power in the West African nation after back-to-back coups in 2020 and 2021. They insist the situation is under control despite jihadists linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group roaming the Sahel region for years.
"The location and nature of the attack demonstrates the significant operational capabilities and reach of JNIM," Lucas Webber, an analyst with Tech Against Terrorism, told AFP.
"It also signals the inability of Mali's intelligence and security apparatus -- along with those of its Russian and regional allies -- to detect and intercept the plot beforehand," the analyst said.
The JNIM also sent a message to the Malian government and army by seeking to avoid civilian victims, Webber said.
"It likewise signals to neighbouring governments that JNIM can conduct similar attacks in neighbouring countries," he added.
- Propaganda -
Mali's leaders launched an extensive military operation in the north of the country where armed separatist groups and jihadists have lost control of several areas since last year.
In July, however, the army and its Russian allies suffered one of their biggest defeats.
The army admitted it had suffered a "large number" of deaths during the fighting in Tinzaouatene, near the Algerian border. A Telegram channel linked to the Wagner group confirmed losses among its ranks.
On the other side, the mainly Tuareg separatists claimed "a stunning victory", with one of their leaders saying dozens of Russians had been killed. The JNIM said it had killed 50 Russians and 10 Malians.
Previously, France's anti-jihadist Barkhane force, the United Nations stabilisation mission, MINUSMA, and European troops had contained the threat in the north, Hans-Jakob Schindler, head of the Counter-Extremism Project think tank, told AFP.
But the Malian junta ordered them out, turning instead to Russia for support.
Since then, said Schindler, "the Malian army haven’t done a very good job, Africa Corps have committed atrocities against the local population" and the JNIM has profited by declaring through its propaganda that it is protecting the Malian population.
- Sowing 'uncertainty everywhere' -
Tuesday's dawn attack is also symbolic of progress in advancing southwards by the jihadists, whose stated objective is to reach the Gulf of Guinea by attacking coastal nations.
"The JNIM is in a long-term attrition strategy. The north is a sanctuary and they are pushing towards the south," the North African researcher said.
The jihadist group has the capacity to "do the same thing in Mopti (north of Bamako) or in Kayes (in the southwest)," said one Western expert on the region.
"They are going to create uncertainty everywhere and show they have real freedom to act, contrary to what the junta says," he said. It was a "strategy of permanent pressure and of harassment" without any intention of taking control of Bamako.
Mali, like its neighbours and allies Niger and Burkina Faso, appears unable to halt the trend.
Western countries, now classed as an enemy, have no means of gathering intelligence or taking action.
Their only option is to stop the advance on the south by working with coastal countries, Schindler said.
"This is what happens when you have chaos. Terrorists don't have limited ambitions," he said.
Mali's choice of growing isolation, like that of its Sahelian neighbours, worries Western powers.
"I would hope they realise they need to reconsider their options because their counter terrorism is not working," Tammy Palacios, analyst at the Modern War Institute at the United States' West Point military academy, said.
"They will face further instability from these groups if they don’t consider perhaps international partnerships."
By Didier Lauras