File: Dark grey storm clouds during a rain storm. Romain Costaseca/Hans Lucas via AFP
JOHANNESBURG - South Africa has been experiencing erratic weather patterns, with more frequent and intense weather events across the country.
To help manage these conditions, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has a detailed warning system in place.
This system helps the public understand the likelihood and severity of weather events, allowing them to prepare accordingly.
Weather forecaster Lehlohonolo Thobela, explains how the system works and why it is crucial for public safety.
SAWS categorises weather warnings using a colour-coded system: • Yellow (low to moderate impact) • Orange (significant impact) • Red (severe impact) |
The warnings are also ranked from Level 1 to Level 10. Levels 1 to 4 are generally classified under yellow, meaning minor disruptions may occur.
Levels 5 to 8 fall under orange, indicating significant disruptions, while Levels 9 and 10 are classified as red, meaning severe conditions that could cause major damage and loss of life.
"For example, a Level 10 warning for heavy rain means widespread flooding, washed-away roads, and major traffic disruptions,'' explains Thobela. On the other hand, a Level 2 warning for disruptive rain suggests a medium likelihood of minor flooding in specific areas, causing only slight delays."
Weather forecasters look at several factors before issuing warnings. • The likelihood of rain or storms • The stability of the atmosphere (whether it can trigger thunderstorms) • The geography of the area (low-lying areas are more prone to flooding) • Temperature changes (extreme heat can cause severe thunderstorms) |
By analysing these factors, SAWS can predict whether an area will experience heavy rain, strong winds, flooding, or severe thunderstorms.
Many people wonder whether these extreme weather events are normal seasonal changes or the result of climate change.
Thobela believes that human beings influence climate change. "Scientific studies indicate that extreme weather events such as heatwaves and large storms are becoming more frequent and intense due to global warming," he adds.
While there haven’t been significant long-term shifts, Thobela says that extreme weather conditions are increasing in severity and frequency, particularly in the eastern parts of the country.
"To an extent, our infrastructure is struggling to withstand the severity of these weather conditions," he says.
With South Africa transitioning from summer to autumn, above-normal rainfall is expected in some areas, including the Free State, Northern Cape, and parts of the North West.
Meanwhile, the southwestern parts of the country will experience more rainfall as winter approaches.
Thobela says the best way to stay safe during extreme weather events is to follow warnings issued by SAWS and listen to disaster management teams.
"The first thing to educate yourself on is how to react to weather warnings. Pay attention to forecasts, avoid risky areas, and follow disaster management instructions," he said.
Important steps: • Pay attention to weather reports on TV, radio, and social media. • Move to higher ground if your area is prone to flooding. • Avoid travelling during severe storms to prevent accidents. • Follow instructions from emergency services to ensure your safety. |
By Minenhle Thusi