Energy expert predicts problems ahead for Eskom

Energy analyst and MD at EE Business Intelligence, Chris Yelland spoke with eNCA's Jeremy Maggs. Courtesy of #DStv403

JOHANNESBURG - Eskom has implemented Stage 2 load-shedding this week.

Just over 45 percent of Eskom's generation capacity has not been available for service, according to energy analyst and MD at EE Business Intelligence, Chris Yelland.

"South Africa has about 14,000 MW generation capacity, but 45 percent of this is not available for service for a number of different reasons," Yelland said.

READ: Eskom to implement Stage 2 load-shedding

"The first being that, at this time, in summer Eskom uses the opportunity of lower than usual electricity demand to do a lot more maintenance than in the winter months.

"This is what we call 'planned outages' and then we have so-called 'unplanned outages' which are break downs of plants that were not expected."

Yelland said one of Koeberg's units is down, and taking 100 MW out of service unexpectedly leads to very high levels of so-called "unplanned outages" of about 8,000 MW.

READ: Eskom announces load-reduction

"About 20 percent of the fleet is down for this purpose against a target of about 10 percent," he said.

"Lastly, we have what is called 'other outages'. Other outages are generally outages beyond the control of Eskom. For some reason (which I'm not quite sure of) three units at Camden are out of service as a result of the ash dam being full and Eskom cannot run this plant at full load.

"A number of units are out and that is classified as other outage factors.

"The combination of the three is leading to a situation where supply is inadequate to meet demand, even though demand is very low at this time of the year and it's rising now as the country wakes up after the Christmas shutdown, so I think we can expect problems ahead," Yelland said.


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